2007/08/08

Won't the real US Treasury Department please stand up?

The Chinese government has begun a concerted campaign of economic threats against the United States, hinting that it may liquidate its vast holding of US treasuries if Washington imposes trade sanctions to force a yuan revaluation.

Two officials at leading Communist Party bodies have given interviews in recent days warning - for the first time - that Beijing may use its $1.33 trillion (£658bn) of foreign reserves as a political weapon to counter pressure from the US Congress.

[...]

Described as China's "nuclear option" in the state media, such action could trigger a dollar crash at a time when the US currency is already breaking down through historic support levels.

It would also cause a spike in US bond yields, hammering the US housing market and perhaps tipping the economy into recession. It is estimated that China holds over $900bn in a mix of US bonds.

"Of course, China doesn't want any undesirable phenomenon in the global financial order," [Xia Bin, finance chief at the Development Research Centre (which has cabinet rank)] added.

He Fan, an official at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, went even further today, letting it be known that Beijing had the power to set off a dollar collapse if it choose to do so.

"China has accumulated a large sum of US dollars. Such a big sum, of which a considerable portion is in US treasury bonds, contributes a great deal to maintaining the position of the dollar as a reserve currency. Russia, Switzerland, and several other countries have reduced the their dollar holdings.

"China is unlikely to follow suit as long as the yuan's exchange rate is stable against the dollar. The Chinese central bank will be forced to sell dollars once the yuan appreciated dramatically, which might lead to a mass depreciation of the dollar," he told China Daily.

The threats play into the presidential electoral campaign of Hillary Clinton, who has called for restrictive legislation to prevent America being "held hostage to economic decicions being made in Beijing, Shanghai, or Tokyo".

She said foreign control over 44pc of the US national debt had left America acutely vulnerable.

Telegraph.
As megalomanias do passado, da rotativa sempre à mão, do apelo à dívida para sustentar o Big Spend e toda a máquina estatal americana começar a dar os seus resultados e a fazer temer o pior. O resto dos dados, a acrescentar ao problema da bolha do crédito em curso, não são nada animadores (antes pelo contrário). Veja-se (falam por si) as evoluções das cotações das principais moedas de referência em termos de reserva de moeda, do ouro, e da participação estrangeira na dívida (clicar para aumentar):


Participação estrangeira na dívida


Ouro vs. USD


USD vs. Yuan


USD vs. Libra Inglesa


USD vs. Yen


USD vs. Euro


USD vs. Franco Suíço

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